file.pdf (148.77 kB)

Bayesian Belief Polarization

Download (148.77 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 01.12.2009 by Alan Jern, Kai-Min Chang, Charles Kemp

Empirical studies have documented cases of belief polarization, where two people with opposing prior beliefs both strengthen their beliefs after observing the same evidence. Belief polarization is frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality, but we demonstrate that this phenomenon is consistent with a fully Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization is not only possible but relatively common within the set of Bayesian models that we consider

History

Publisher Statement

All Rights Reserved

Date

01/12/2009

Exports

Keyword(s)

Exports