Characterizing Uncertainties in IGCC System Performance and Cost

The objective of this research is to develop, implement, and demonstrate a capability for evaluating performance and cost uncertainties in integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems. While traditional approaches to technolo-gy modeling and decision making may be appro-priate for well-established, commercial technology, they are inadequate as a basis for research planning for technologies in early stages of research and development. A probabilistic evaluation method-ology, and the required software capabilities, are developed for the ASPEN simulator. The method is applied to detailed case studies.