posted on 2003-01-01, 00:00authored byDavid Danks, Thomas L. Griffiths, Joshua B. Tenenbaum
Current psychological theories of human causal learning and
judgment focus primarily on long-run predictions: two by
estimating parameters of a causal Bayes nets (though for different
parameterizations), and a third through structural learning. This
paper focuses on people’s short-run behavior by examining
dynamical versions of these three theories, and comparing their
predictions to a real-world dataset.