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Human Perceptions of Climate Change
journal contribution
posted on 2008-07-01, 00:00 authored by Varun Dutt, Cleotilde GonzalezCleotilde GonzalezThis paper presents an interactive simulation of the effects of emissions and absorptions of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The interactive simulation based
on the “bathtub” metaphor, was built using the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy
model (DICE)-1992. The interactive tool allows participants to make decisions on the
anthropogenic CO2 emissions, observe the consequences of the decisions and try new
decisions. In a laboratory experiment, we tested the participants’ ability to control the CO2
concentration to a realistic amount in the atmosphere over a period of 100 to 200 years.
Participants worked on one of two extreme conditions: one rapid, where transfer rate of
carbon dioxide was 1.6% per year with CO2 emission decisions made every 2 years, and
other slow, where transfer rate of carbon dioxide was 1.2% per year with CO2 emission
decisions made every 4 years. Due to human incapacity to handle feedback delays and their
use of faulty heuristics, we expected participants to find the slow condition harder to
control as compared to the rapid condition. Results show that participants had more
difficulty achieving control of CO2 concentration to goal in face of slower dynamics than
rapid dynamics. Implications and future of our research findings are discussed.