Impact of Police Raids at Nuisance Bars on Illegal Drug Dealing: Estimating Intervention Effects in Varying Risk Settings

This paper examines the effects of police raids at nuisance bars on drug dealing in and around the nuisance bar. We examine effects of both dosage (number of raids) and duration of the intervention, as well as the conditioning effects of land use and population characteristics in shaping the underlying risk levels of drug dealing in the target and surrounding displacement areas. Results indicate that the police intervention does suppress levels of drug dealing during periods of active enforcement, but these effects largely disappear when the intervention is withdrawn. Also, the effects of the intervention are mediated by risk characteristics in target and displacement areas. In general, target areas characterized by higher levels of risk are more resistant to intervention effects than those with lower levels or risk. Risk factors in nearby displacement areas are also significant. Bars with high levels of risk arising from land uses in surrounding areas are easier to treat, while bars with high levels of population-based risk in surrounding displacement areas are harder to treat.