Modeling IGCC System Performance, Emissions, and Cost Using Probabilistic Engineering Models

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems are an emerging technology for the, clean and efficient utilization of coal. Because of the close interactions among plant performance, environmental control, and cost, assessments of IGCC technology must be based on integrated analysis of the entire system. The uncertain nature of the limited performance and cost data for the first generation systems, coupled with uncertainties associated with alternative process configurations, suggests a strong need for systematic :analysis of uncertainty in evaluating alternative designs or concepts. This paper will present results from a probabilistic case study of one innovative IGCC concept featuring "hot gas _cleanup." The case study will demonstrate the new types of insights that can be obtained from probabilistic analysis.