Modeling the Structure and Effectiveness of Intelligence Organizations: Dynamic Information Flow Simulation

This paper describes the Dynamic Information Flow Simulation (DIFS), an abstract model for analyzing the structure and function of intelligence support organizations and the activities of entities within them. In order to do so, DIFS simulates the flow of tasks and reports between various units (decision makers, collectors, processors (analysts), databases, etc.) and agencies within an intelligence organization. DIFS is a dynamic, discrete, multi-agent, networked simulation. The structure of the simulation – i.e., the types and properties of entities, communication ties, agencies, and operating procedures - is described. The performance metrics used in, equations used in, and assumptions behind its design are discussed. Methods of conducting a virtual experiment using the simulation, output generated, and a strategy for validating the results is given. DIFS is intended to provide a method of analysis of intelligence support effectiveness abstracted from sources, methods, and content. Using this analysis, marginal performance change caused by change in organization structure or policy can be quantitatively modeled. Over- and under-loaded units, units that are not re-tasked when intelligence requirements change, and changes in information flow can be identified and modeled. Finally, the weaknesses, benefits, and additional applications of DIFS and areas where further research is desired are discussed.