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journal contribution
posted on 2009-11-09, 00:00 authored by Joseph R. Radzevick, Don A. MooreRecent research has shown that when people compare one thing to another, they tend to focus
myopically on the target of the comparative judgment and do not sufficiently consider the
referent to which the target is being compared. This paper applies this recent theoretical progress
to the problem of predicting the outcomes of athletic competitions. In three studies, we show
that the focal competitor’s strengths and weaknesses feature more prominently than do the
strengths and weaknesses of the opponents. People are more confident of success when their
own side is strong, regardless of how strong the competition is. Implications for theories of
strategic decision making in competitive settings are discussed