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Scientific Management of Science?
journal contributionposted on 2000-01-01, 00:00 authored by Baruch FischhoffBaruch Fischhoff
A framework is advanced for allocating research resources, based on the value of the information that proposed projects are expected to produce. As an organizing device, the framework uses integrated assessmentss, howing the relationships between the predictors of outcomes arising in important decisions (e.g., interest rates, mortality rates, crop yields, crime probabilities). Proposed projects are evaluated in terms of their ability to sharpen estimates either of those variables or of the relationships among them. This approach is intended to allow diverse forms of science to show their potential impacts -while encouraging them to integrate their work. Where suitable estimates are available, the expected value of the information from alternative studies can be computed and compared. However, even at a qualitative level, formal analyses can improve the efficiency and integration of research programs.