The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections

Public officials, many academic experts, and the press consider aggregate economic conditions to be important determinants of election outcomes. Low unemployment and a low rate of inflation are sometimes said to favor incumbents, and high rates of inflation and unemployment to favor' challengers. Others suggest that high or rising unemployment favors the Democrats while high or rising inflation favors the Republicans. Attempts to test these propositions, in one or another form, can be found in social science journals for the past forty years.