Uncertainties in CO2 Capture and Sequestration Costs

The cost of CO2 avoidance depends on a wide variety of factors and assumptions whose impacts have not been fully considered in past assessments of carbon capture and sequestration technologies. As part of the USDOE's Carbon Sequestration Program, we have developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate the performance and costs of alternative CO2 capture and sequestration technologies for fossil-fueled power plants, in the context of multi-pollutant control requirements. This model (called the IECM-CS) allows for explicit characterization of the uncertainty or variability in any or all model input parameters. This paper reviews the major sources of uncertainty or variability in CO2 cost estimates, then uses the IECM-CS to analyze uncertainties in CO2 mitigation costs for currently available (amine-based) CO2 capture technologies applicable to coal-fired power plants.