Carnegie Mellon University
Browse

sorry, we can't preview this file

epp-1072.pdf (208.6 kB)

Uncertainties in Technology Experience Curves for Integrated Assessment Models

Download (208.6 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 2007-01-01, 00:00 authored by Sonia Yeh, Edward RubinEdward Rubin, David A. Hounshell, Margaret R. Taylor
The phenomenon of technological learning has been observed across a wide spectrum of energy and environmental technologies. Quantitative modeling of experience curves has become an increasingly common method of representing endogenous technical change in long-term integrated assessment models used for energy and environmental policy analysis. However, many issues remain to be addressed in the use of experience curves to quantify long-term cost trends of energy technologies. This paper highlights and critically reviews some of the major sources of uncertainty and their implications to model outcomes. It draws on recent empirical literature, as well as on new data characterizing historical cost trends in the early deployment of three environmental technologies especially relevant to energy systems. Our findings indicate the need for a more thorough and systematic examination of the uncertainty of experience curve formulations on the outcomes of energy and environmental policy analyses that extend over many decades.

History

Publisher Statement

All Rights Reserved

Date

2007-01-01

Usage metrics

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC