Carnegie Mellon University
standardized-evaluation-of-epi-models-rev-09nov2012.pdf (394.96 kB)

A Proposal for Standardized Evaluation of Epidemiological Models

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posted on 2022-12-19, 19:54 authored by Ronald RosenfeldRonald Rosenfeld, John Grefenstette, Don Burke

 In this paper, we argue for setting forecasting accuracy as an explicit goal of epidemiological modeling. Specifically, we propose a public, ongoing evaluation program for measuring the forecasting accuracy of epidemiological models. The program should be designed by all stakeholders: PH decision makers, practitioners, funders and researchers. The evaluation should be based primarily on forecasting of events to occur in the coming 6-12 months, such as the dominant strain in the next epidemic wave, the number of documented animal-to-human transmissions, number of respirators used, etc. Based on the first author’s experience with designing standardized evaluations in other fields, we recommend the following process: 

  1. Convene a planning workshop to decide on focus and general guidelines for the evaluation. 
  2. Establish a governing body to oversee the evaluations on an ongoing basis. 
  3. Meet annually to analyze the results and revise the evaluation program.




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