Energy Access and Climate Mitigation: Impacts on Technology Choice, Emissions, and Costs in East Africa

 East African countries have set universal energy access goals for electricity and clean cooking access while also committing to reducing carbon emissions. However, there are three critical gaps in our understanding of how to meet these goals while upholding climate commitments. First, there is a need for high-resolution open-source models that provide a clear representation of who lacks access considering tier access levels in rural and urban East Africa. Second, we require a better understanding of the level of access countries aim to achieve and the resulting implications. Finally, as countries work towards achieving universal energy access targets in a carbon-constrained world, there is an opportunity to incorporate the demand for transportation services into energy planning efforts at an early stage. Addressing these gaps is crucial to creating effective policies that promote equitable access to clean energy sources and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change in East Africa. This dissertation is motivated by the fact that inadequate data hinders the ability of stakeholders to make sound decisions at the national level regarding issues such as energy poverty. Chapter 2 of this dissertation introduces the first version of the Temoa East Africa model, offering a detailed parameterization of supply, electricity, building, and transport sector technologies, and includes carbon removal and hydrogen production pathways. The open-source model seeks to encourage further collaboration and sustainable energy planning in East Africa. Future work aims to incorporate more detailed transportation service demand data, electric vehicle charging station characterizations, and extended technology characterizations to the industrial and agricultural sectors. 

Concurrently, climate change is a reality, and there is an immediate and urgent call to reduce human-made emissions. Therefore, energy access goals must be met in a carbon-constrained world. Using the Temoa East Africa model, Chapter 3 examines the impacts of different energy access definitions on final energy consumption, least-cost technology mix, emissions, and costs by access tier group. The findings emphasize the importance of identifying obstacles and opportunities for each access tier to progress towards equitable energy access and low-carbon pathways, including policies that promote access to modern, efficient, and cleaner energy sources, particularly in rural households. The shift towards natural gas and electricity in higher access tier groups can facilitate progress towards a low-carbon energy system dependent on renewable energy and carbon removal technologies. Decentralized technologies such as off-grid solar PV will play a pivotal role in increasing electricity access to households in sparsely populated rural areas. 

Countries in Africa are not responsible for the vast majority of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for only 4% of cumulative emissions. Nevertheless, in the long term, continued reliance on fossil fuels and traditional biomass traps these nations, particularly the poorest in rural areas, in a continuous cycle of energy poverty. Chapter 4 develops a long-term land-based passenger and freight transport demand model to support open-modeling community efforts in developing countries, including East Africa. The findings suggest that middle-income countries in Asia, such as India and China, show the highest expected transport demand across all scenarios. Low-income countries in the sub-Saharan African region are likely to experience the largest growth in demand for passenger and freight transport services. Sustainably meeting this growing demand will require the adoption of data-driven transport planning tools and leveraging cross-linkages across other energy sectors, such as electricity. 

Overall, this dissertation provides valuable insights into sustainable energy planning in East Africa, highlighting the need for data-driven tools and policies that promote equitable access to clean energy sources while meeting clearly defined universal energy access targets. Achieving universal energy access goals that enable development while adhering to climate mitigation targets necessitates the use of open-source data-driven tools to aid country-level decision-making in East Africa.