Experimental Electionomics: How Election Forecasts Influence Voter Turnout

<div>We create forecasts as a way of reducing the uncertainty that surrounds uncertain events.</div><div>Often, forecasts provide information that can be acted upon, and in the case of elections, their</div><div>use as a decision aid can have a direct effect on the outcome of the election. Currently, it’s</div><div>unclear how potential voters incorporate election forecasts in their decision making. To gain a</div><div>better understanding of this, a survey was created and distributed to 186 subjects. Participants</div><div>were introduced to two fictional candidates in a hypothetical presidential election, and provided</div><div>their stances on a series of political issues. Subjects were asked whether or not they’d vote for</div><div>their preferred candidate, and were randomly shown one of four different election forecasts.</div><div>Then, they were asked again whether or not they’d vote for their preferred candidate. Overall,</div><div>participants’ decision to turn out switched 14% of the time after being shown an election</div><div>forecast. There was no evidence to suggest that there is a relationship between the type of</div><div>forecast shown and the likelihood that an individual switched his or her turnout decision. This</div><div>research shows that election forecasts do have an impact voting behavior, but the mechanism by</div><div>which this occurs remains unclear. As such, future research on this topic should be conducted to</div><div>better understand how voters use forecasts. This will assist media outlets and campaigns in being</div><div>well informed of the impact associated with forecast reporting, allowing American democracy to</div><div>grow stronger.</div><div><br></div>