Is AI a General Purpose Technology?

A general purpose technology (GPT) is an exceptional link in a complex chain of innovations connected through space and time. Common examples include the steam engine, electrification, and the automobile (Bresnahan & Trajtenberg, 1995; Bresnahan & Trajtenberg, 1995; & Bekar, et. al., 2018). A GPT is set apart from other innovations because of the massive breadth, depth, and duration of their impact on our world and, therefore, worthy of special consideration. (Trajtenberg, 2019; Bekar, et. al., 2018; Strohmaier & Rainer, 2016; Ott, et. al., 2009; & Bresnahan & Trajtenberg, 1995). Yet, the changes GPTs bring can take decades and even centuries to manifest fully and much of GPT research to date is post hoc (Bresnahan & Trajtenberg, 1995; Lipsey, Bekar, & Carlaw, 2005; & Jovanovic & Rousseau, 2005). Yet executives, entrepreneurs, researchers, policymakers, and investors would all benefit from foresight anticipating the next GPT. This research explores this prospect empirically by tracing the ‘pervasiveness dimensions’ of a candidate GPT before its ultimate economic and societal impact is observed. Our candidate GPT is Artificial Intelligence (AI) and a key enabling technology, Deep Learning (DL). We trace the evolution of AI and DL from their birth in the latter half of the 20th century to the present, with a focus on the diffusion of large-scale applications of AI/DL from 2000 to 2020 (Goldfarb, et. al, 2021). We are aided by a rich base of prior academic research across various disciplines as well as industry analyses and reports. We hope to add a forward-looking tool to the decision-makers toolkit, while also increasing our understanding of AI not only as an innovation but as an extraordinary technological, economic, social, and even political phenomenon.

Executive Doctorate of Business Adminsitration, Temple University