posted on 2020-08-19, 20:19authored byJerome Combes-Knoke
This
paper seeks to provide a general methodology for the valuation of alternative
energy proposals in stochastic markets.
Assuming that the markets for energy, fuel, and related financial
derivatives are efficient and that prices between various fuels and energies
are well understood, I will explain the existing theory of how these prices
can be modeled as stochastic processes in relation to one another. I then postulate how these stochastic
models can be incorporated into a mathematical framework to determine the
value of an alternative energy proposal from the standpoint of consumers,
investors, and society as a whole.
While the mathematics supporting this argument have well been
established, their application to proposal valuations as well as policy
analysis has not been widely developed leaving most decision makers to rely
on oversimplified discrete time models.